Saudi Arabia to scale back oil and gas sector spending, Goldman Sach says
(Bloomberg) 鈥 Saudi Arabia is expected to put less money into the oil industry than initially predicted in its goal to invest聽$1 trillion聽in strategic sectors by the end of the decade.
The Gulf kingdom will likely direct the majority of its funds, around 73% of total investments, into non-oil sectors by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., a shift from the bank鈥檚 earlier estimate of 66%.聽
The increased allocation toward non-oil investments leaves only a quarter of the remaining funds for oil sectors, as the kingdom focuses on industries that enable its diversification including metals and minerals, transport and logistics, and digitalization.聽
Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman鈥檚 economic transformation plan Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has opened up its economy to new avenues, investing in new sectors and re-branding the country鈥檚 image. A big goal in the vision is to reduce reliance on crude sales.聽
Although capex in the oil sector is likely to shrink by $40 billion between now and 2028, natural gas continues to be 鈥渁 key contributor to the country鈥檚 decarbonization, economic development, and diversification plans,鈥 Faisal AlAzmeh, head of CEEMEA equity research at Goldman wrote in a report.
With Brent crude prices currently hovering around $80 a barrel and with Saudi oil production down to around 9 million barrels a day, the kingdom faces the rising threat of a widening budget deficit.聽
The government鈥檚 oil earnings have dropped around one-third from 2022 levels, when oil prices averaged nearly $100 a barrel.聽
Saudi Arabia鈥檚 second-quarter budget shortfall came in at 15.3 billion riyals ($4.1 billion), showing just how reliant the government still is on hydrocarbon revenue. Authorities expect the budget will be in the red for at least several years. Goldman鈥檚 own research expects the deficit will widen to 4.3% of gross domestic product this year, up from 2% last year.
Still, progress in financing new sectors is picking up, with an uptick in renewable energy investments, according to Goldman鈥檚 research. Clean energy is seen receiving $235 billion in funding, up from a previous estimate of $148 billion as the kingdom more than doubles its capacity target by the end of the decade.聽