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'Drill, baby, drill' unlikely under Trump presidency, Exxon says

Mitchell Ferman, Bloomberg November 26, 2024

(Bloomberg) 鈥 Oil and gas producers in the U.S. will not raise output significantly in the coming years despite calls from President-Elect Donald Trump to 鈥渄rill, baby, drill,鈥 said Exxon Mobil Corp.鈥檚 Upstream President Liam Mallon.

鈥淚 think a radical change is unlikely because the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they鈥檙e doing,鈥 Mallon said on Tuesday at a conference in London.

Trump is expected to open up federal lands for more oil and gas drilling, but much of the land in the country鈥檚 largest oil and gas producing state, Texas, is private. Still, there鈥檚 plentiful federal land in neighboring New Mexico which includes the oil- and gas-rich Permian Basin.

鈥淚f those rules were substantially changed, you would be able to drill more, assuming you have the quality and met your economic threshold,鈥 Mallon said. 鈥淏ut I don鈥檛 think we鈥檙e going to see anybody in the drill, baby, drill mode. I really don鈥檛.鈥

Exxon鈥檚 European rival TotalEnergies SE is also skeptical of Trump鈥檚 vow to open US taps.聽

鈥淢aybe he has a magic recipe to push them to drill like mad,鈥 TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne said at the conference. He cited US producers鈥 commitment to return cash to shareholders and said 鈥渋t鈥檚 not only decisions by politicians鈥 that drive American output.

The U.S. is pumping more than 13 million barrels of crude a day, exceeding every other nation and up almost 45% in the past decade. With a surplus looming next year, the global oil market is watching to see at what rate American explorers drill new wells. Many of the biggest US operators are taking a long-term approach to production, weighing when to bring certain wells online against their overall inventory.

Mallon鈥檚 comments mark the second time since the election that the largest US oil company has diverged from Trump鈥檚 policies. CEO Darren Woods discouraged the president-elect from withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris climate pact, arguing that it鈥檚 better to participate and push for 鈥渃ommon sense鈥 carbon-cutting policy.

Mallon reinforced Woods鈥檚 recent remarks supporting the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump has characterized as Washington鈥檚 鈥済reen new scam.鈥 Some IRA incentives 鈥 including tax credits for capturing carbon, producing hydrogen and making sustainable aviation fuel 鈥 are particularly popular with oil companies.

鈥淥ur position on the IRA is very good,鈥 Mallon said. 鈥淲e strongly believe in what it is, what it stands for and the incentives it鈥檚 providing.鈥

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