Oil prices fall nearly 10% on renewed demand concerns
(Bloomberg) - Oil in New York dropped as short-term demand concerns and a rising dollar collided to cause the biggest intraday drop since October.
West Texas Intermediate fell nearly 10% on Thursday and is poised to extend its stretch of daily losses to the longest in over a year. Brent also slid more than 8%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.5%, weakening the appeal of commodities priced in the currency.
Related: Oil prices post deepest weekly loss since October, yet banks remain bullish
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Futures have backtracked since Brent rallied above $71 a barrel and U.S. crude topped $67 earlier this month. China has muted its buying, touching off physical-market weakness in Asia, and a shaky Covid-19 vaccine rollout in parts of the world spells trouble for a complete demand recovery in the short term.
鈥淭his is a risk-off moment with some of the cyclical trades,鈥 said Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Oil prices will likely 鈥渢est the lower end of this trading range, because we don鈥檛 have a whole global reopening. We鈥檙e behind on vaccines outside the U.S., the U.K. and Israel, and parts of Europe are having to shut back down.鈥
Oil鈥檚 move lower may also be linked to some unwinding of long positions from commodity trading advisors as daily price gains or losses of more than 3% can often trigger this account group to quickly unload.
Beyond headline prices, crude鈥檚 closest timespreads are reflecting the fragile near-term outlook. WTI鈥檚 front-month contract is trading at a discount again to the following month, while Brent鈥檚 backwardation -- a bullish structure signaling tighter supplies -- is weakening.
鈥淭he sentiment has changed,鈥 said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. 鈥淪hort-term supply and demand considerations are temporarily casting a shadow over the bright future that is likely to arrive in the third quarter of the year.鈥
Prices:
- WTI for April delivery slid $5.22 to $59.38 a barrel at 2:15 p.m. in Houston, falling for a fifth straight session
- Brent for May settlement fell $5.37 to $62.63 a barrel
- Brent's futures spread has weakened in recent days
The global recovery from the pandemic remains uneven. In Brazil, Covid-19 cases are expanding by record numbers, crimping activity, while in the U.K., delayed shipments of AstraZeneca Plc鈥檚 vaccine will cut supply this month. Meanwhile, the European Union鈥檚 drug regulator concluded that the benefits from AstraZeneca鈥檚 vaccine outweighs the risks after several of Europe鈥檚 largest countries suspended use of the shots this month because of concerns around blood clots.
鈥淒emand hasn鈥檛 gotten as far back to normal as we expected, with the vaccine news out of Europe definitely concerning in terms of short-term demand,鈥 said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 making people think that the time for $70 Brent has not yet come.鈥
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